2013 Oscar Predictions

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February 23, 2013 by Josh Simmons

This Sunday marks the official end of Hollywood’s notoriously long awards season. Seriously, I’ve seen Tarantino films shorter than this time where all your favorite actors are crying on barely-seen morning talk shows and giving 10-minute long acceptance speeches at the esteemed Satellite Awards. But don’t worry because I’m sure these same thespians will be back at it — unabashedly promoting themselves as they hop from event to event — within three months.

I’m just kidding. Because in reality, I’m the biggest fan of awards season. I’m the one who laughs and cries within the same two-minute acceptance speech, the one who watches the hosts’ opening monologues over and over again on YouTube — even for events like the Satellite Awards, the one who DVRs all the talk shows and is inspired by actors showing how much a project means to them. I’m that guy.

This year, I’ve been tracking the action more than ever. I’ve seen almost every film that’s been discussed for major awards (except for Amour, which has been at the top of my invisible to-do list for too long). While there are a few obvious locks, most of the big awards are still too close to call with only a little over 24 hours left till the stars begin to strut down the red carpet.

Whatever happens, I’m just excited to watch the action.  Even after all the disappointments I’ve felt when the envelope is opened and the name or movie I am waiting to be read isn’t called, I still love Oscar night. It’s the night where a normally apathetic, mild-mannered college student turns into Spike Lee at a Knicks game. I may just be sitting on my couch instead of courtside at the Garden, but my heart is beating as fast as the nominees, I start yelling at the TV screen like it can hear me, I taunt the losers as if I’m better than they are. It’s not my finest hour, but it sure is my favorite hour (or five).

Remember that scene in Silver Linings Playbook where Bradley Cooper cannot find his wedding video at 3 a.m.? That’s what it was like in my house when The King’s Speech and Hooper beat The Social Network and Fincher. So this year, my favorites better win. Or else, instead of a suburban household of four, the entire Georgetown community will have to feel the wrath of this scrawny 19-year old boy. Without further ado, I unveil my picks for 85^th Academy Awards:

Best Picture
Will Win: Argo
Dark Horse: Lincoln
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook

I was thinking of making an Argo pun like so many other predictors have done, but writing this at 2 a.m., I thought better of it. If anything has become clear from a confusing and unpredictable awards season, it’s that Argo deserves to be the Best Picture frontrunner. A triumph at the Golden Globes began an incredible streak for the flick, which reeled off wins at the SAGs, the reliable Oscar measuring stick PGAs, and, most recently, the BAFTAs. While it is hard to discount Lincoln and its 12 nominations, the other, and possibly more serious, contender is Silver Linings Playbook. A film that tackles mental illness with such comedy, heart, dysfunction, romance and even dance deserves to be recognized (as I can attest after five viewings that improve time after time). However, Argo is also an incredibly likeable picture and with Clooney and Affleck wining and dining voters, its momentum will be hard to top. It seems it will Argo home with the top prize. Damn it… I just couldn’t help myself after all.

Best Director
Will Win: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Dark Horse: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Should Win: Ben Affleck (Argo)

Am I allowed to say the person that should win for this category wasn’t even nominated? At this point it seems Affleck would win if voters could write in his name after his victories at the Golden Globes, DGAs, and BAFTAs. The man who made Gigli now has all of Hollywood behind him. His snub has, in a never-before-seen way, paradoxically helped Argo’s Best Picture chances. Far from a sure win, Spielberg seems like the logical choice, but he has the problem of being such a legend that his Oscar recognition has suffered in the past (The Color Purple, E.T.). No one talks about Ang Lee, but most people consider him the real star of Life of Pi, which gives him a good chance to sweep in and take home the statue in my eyes. David O. Russell could also hear his name called after helming the first film in over 30 years to receive nominations in all four acting categories. With a reputation as an actor’s director and with actors making up the largest voting branch of the Academy, don’t count out the mercurial filmmaker. Zeitlin is just happy to be there, but Michael Haneke also has a chance with his universally acclaimed film, Amour. The question is have enough people in the universe, or the Academy specifically, seen it? This really is a four-person race and Mr. Spielberg holds a slight edge.

Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Dark Horse: Josh Simmons (George Washington: Zombie Killer)
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

There is no fathomable way that Day-Lewis will not became the first man to win three Best Actor statues. The acting legend has won everything possible for his portrayal as the 16^th President and the respect he has makes this a virtual lock. In all seriousness, I sadly was never informed of my nomination so I think the real runner-up would probably be Hugh Jackman as a distant, distant second for his work as Jean Valjean. While I liked Jackman, Washington, a snubbed Hawkes, and especially Cooper, the only other person who might deserve to win is Joaquin Phoenix for his brilliantly captivating work in The Master. The world’s greatest rapper and one of its greatest actors has never won an Academy Award and his comments about the Academy this year probably won’t help. The film is also probably too polarizing among viewers to walk away with any awards. Bottom line: no one is better or more deserving than Day-Lewis.

Best Actress
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Dark Horse: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

This was originally seen as a two-person race between Lawrence and Chastain, but I think it has recently turned into a clash between the Hunger Games star and Emmanuelle Riva. Being older could help the BAFTA winner Riva as people may assume — and probably rightfully so — that this won’t be Lawrence’s last chance to win an Oscar. However, with her wildly likable turn that steals a film full of stellar performances, Lawrence is still the formidable favorite. Silver Linings allows her to show off so many different facets of her character: anger, heartbreak, humor, acceptance, unpredictability and sexuality. It is a brilliant performance that separates her from Riva and Chastain, who probably doesn’t get to display enough emotional range to take home the golden statue.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Dark Horse: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Should Win: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Never dismiss the power of campaigning during Oscars season. De Niro hasn’t won much yet, but the actor has stepped out of his infamous insular shell to heavily push for his third Oscar. Seeing De Niro cry on Katie Couric’s talk show offered the kind of glimpse inside of the legend that could carry him all the way to the podium. Add in the storyline that he hasn’t been nominated since Cape Fear 21 years ago and the edge in the most unpredictable race goes to one of the world’s greatest actors. Tommy Lee Jones is maybe the other favorite for his wonderful work in Lincoln, but his surly personality could get in the way. Phillip Seymour Hoffman always has a chance when he gets nominated, but I personally was a huge fan of Waltz’s work in Django. Some have complained that Dicaprio and Jackson overshadowed him, but I thoroughly disagree. My only complaint would be that it’s not a traditional supporting role. While he is brilliant, he is also a lead in the movie while alive, which would make him an odd and unconventional choice for this award. Still, I would have no qualms seeing De Niro or any of the other past winners come away victorious.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Dark Horse: Sally Field (Lincoln)
Should Win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Another virtual lock, Hathaway has won every major award so far and there is little to suggest something will change that come Sunday. In fact, the only thing that can get in the way of Anne Hathaway is Anne Hathaway. Her acceptance speeches have gotten major criticism from reviewers who complain about how rehearsed and falsely modest they seem. Even so, the New Jerseyan seems to have an insurmountable lead even if the Academy does “really love” Sally Field.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Dark Horse: Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)
Should Win: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)

The original screenplay category is more of a toss-up than it might have originally seemed. Boal was the favorite, but the controversial torture scenes in Zero Dark Thirty and the picture’s lack of success this awards season make this a tight race. The edge goes to Tarantino in my eyes perhaps as a reward for Inglourious Basterds, which was a better script and likely runner-up three years ago. While Django isn’t without its own controversies, the Academy has honored Tarantino in the past and could very well do so again. I personally hope Moonrise Kingdom pulls off the win since sadly, it got left out of the Best Picture field. Wes Anderson can sometimes be a little too quirky for his own good, but this film and screenplay (co-written with Coppola) charmingly blend humor, romance and nostalgia in a way Anderson hasn’t done since The Royal Tenenbaums and Rushmore. Yet, when it comes down to it, my money’s always on Harvey Weinstein.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Chris Terrio (Argo)
Dark Horse: Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
Should Win: David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

After a WGA win last weekend, Terrio has to be considered the favorite. The never-before-nominated scribe pulls off the tricky act of balancing vastly different worlds in Argo and could easily wind up at the podium as a result. Kushner, the early favorite, might win, but it seems like people have gotten bored of Lincoln and it will be an uphill battle for the film to sweep these major awards as originally forecast. In case you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m a champion of Silver Linings Playbook and the film could easily play spoiler to many people’s predictions on Sunday night. David O. Russell has a serious chance to win this award (which would make me euphoric), but I think he has a better shot at winning Director.

Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Brave
Wreck it Ralph might be the popular choice, but its subject matter might be a little too new-age for the older voters. Never doubt Pixar.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Amour
There’s a reason this movie was nominated for Best Picture too. A clear frontrunner.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
An incredibly likeable and fun film that everyone is a fan of.

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Anna Karenina
The movie is basically just a large-scale, extremely impressive game of dress-up.  

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Inocente
A tough one to pick, but I give Inocente the slightest edge thanks to its powerful message and subject matter.

Best Film Editing
Will Win: Argo
A category that could be a precursor for what’s to come, Argo has a clear advantage in this category as a winner of an ACE Eddie Award and a movie that relies heavily on strong editing choices.

Best Makeup
Will Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Come on. The film might be six chapters of a book in six hours, but the makeup work is incredible. Les Mis could also win based on the film’s popularity.

Best Original Score
Will Win: Life of Pi
A score that’s key to the film’s ability to work and is incredibly imaginative should take top prize.

Best Original Song
Will Win: Adele – “Skyfall” (Skyfall)
A brilliant Bond theme that would heavily disappoint if it did not win, although “Suddenly” from Les Mis has a chance.

Best Production Design
Will Win: Anna Karenina
See explanation of the win for makeup. The entire movie takes place on one stage. Should win production design too.  

Best Animated Short
Will Win: Paperman
An enchanting short that is a crowd pleaser and heavy favorite.  

Best Live Action Short
Will Win: Curfew
I have to be honest and admit I have no idea who will win this category.

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Argo
Argo deserves this award for the quick-cut, thrilling scenes filmed in Iran.

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Les Miserables
I don’t know if you’ve heard yet, but the actors sang live and — as they won’t hesitate to tell you — it was revolutionary and incredible and glorious and beautiful and emotional and life changing.  

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Life of Pi
Pi’s visuals are stunning and contribute heavily to the beauty of the adaptation.